Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Meizhou Kejia to Longquanyi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Longquanyi Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sichuan Jiuniu at 0.60 PPG versus Meizhou Kejia's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Meizhou Kejia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Meizhou Kejia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% versus Meizhou Kejia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sichuan Jiuniu 65% | Meizhou Kejia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.027 / defence 1.303 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.757 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.319. Data: 52 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 52 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 27%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Meizhou Kejia 3.70. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Meizhou Kejia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77 / Meizhou Kejia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.027 / def 1.303 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.757 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Meizhou Kejia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 47% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.03) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.78
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.07
1.30
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.30 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sichuan Jiuniu's recent record stands at 12W 10D 30L from 52 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 28L across 52 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.88 PPG, Meizhou Kejia on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sichuan Jiuniu have managed 8W 5D 13L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 3W 8D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sichuan Jiuniu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.10 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 12W 10D 30L in their last 52 games (0.88 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 10W 14D 28L in their last 52 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Sichuan Jiuniu's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.12 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2025, when Meizhou Kejia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Meizhou Kejia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 58% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 54% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 58% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sichuan Jiuniu cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Meizhou Kejia 2-0 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.77 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.30 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 / defence 1.30 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 47% | Draw 26% | Meizhou Kejia 27%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 65%, Meizhou Kejia 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.88 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.