Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.628 / defence 1.503 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.725 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.385. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.628 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 45 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 46%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.628 / def 1.503 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.725 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 27% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown away split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.63) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.72x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.73
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.61
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.72
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 5 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.63 / defence 1.50 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 46%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.