Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Hangzhou Greentown.

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Analysis

Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to face Sichuan Jiuniu in Super League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 13:35 UK time.

Form

Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Hangzhou Greentown edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 0–1 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.628 / defence 1.503 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.725 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.385. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.503 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 15 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 45.

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 46%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.70 | Draw 3.73 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.17. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

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