Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Qingdao Jonoon welcome Chengdu Better City to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 2 for Chengdu Better City and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Chengdu Better City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.917 / defence 1.047 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.130 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.368. Data: 45 Qingdao Jonoon games / 45 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 45%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Chengdu Better City 2.22. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Chengdu Better City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 / Chengdu Better City 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.917 / def 1.047 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.130 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Chengdu Better City xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 5 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 2W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.92) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.88
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
Chengdu Better City xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.03
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.62 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 7W 7D 16L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 7L across 30 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 7W 3D 5L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.70 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Chengdu Better City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 47% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 40%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 53% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 47% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-5 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.28 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.62 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.62 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 45%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Chengdu Better City 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.