Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 42%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Baoan Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 09:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 4W 1D 5L at Baoan Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Baoan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Beijing Guoan arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sichuan Jiuniu, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sichuan Jiuniu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 55% versus Beijing Guoan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 64% | Beijing Guoan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.98 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.958 / defence 1.140 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.129 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.853 / away 1.407. Data: 56 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 56 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 35%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Beijing Guoan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 70% | Beijing Guoan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Baoan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.98 / Beijing Guoan 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.958 / def 1.140 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.129 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.853 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Beijing Guoan xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 09:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Baoan Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Baoan Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 42% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 2W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 0.96x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.13x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
42%
2.37
22%
4.45
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.79
1.81
Beijing Guoan xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.81 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Sichuan Jiuniu have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 13W 10D 33L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 31W 14D 11L from 56 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 12W 9D 7L from 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 13W 10D 33L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 14D 11L in their last 56 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.14 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-0 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Beijing Guoan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 57% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 61% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 57% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sichuan Jiuniu edge out Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Baoan Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.98 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.81 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.13 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 42% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sichuan Jiuniu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.