Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chongqing Lifan make the trip to Tianhe Stadium to face Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 30 July 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Tianhe Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tianhe Stadium.
Chongqing Lifan (all games): 2W 1D 6L across 9 Super League outings this term — 0.78 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan away from home this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.67 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.78 for Chongqing Lifan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shijiazhuang Y. J. lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Chongqing Lifan — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% versus Chongqing Lifan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Chongqing Lifan 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.764 / defence 1.086 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.747 / defence 1.591. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.175. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.591 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 9 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 25%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Chongqing Lifan 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0% | Chongqing Lifan 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 / Chongqing Lifan 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.764 / def 1.086 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.747 / def 1.591 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Chongqing Lifan xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 38% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | Chongqing Lifan 0W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.76x the league average against Chongqing Lifan's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.75x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
38%
2.63
37%
2.70
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.17
0.95
Chongqing Lifan xG
2.63
38%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.95 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 3D 5L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chongqing Lifan sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Shijiazhuang Y. J. against 0.78 for Chongqing Lifan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Chongqing Lifan have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chongqing Lifan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chongqing Lifan are on 1.33 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Chongqing Lifan have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Chongqing Lifan away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.00 PPG; Chongqing Lifan away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chongqing Lifan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chongqing Lifan in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2021, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Chongqing Lifan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chongqing Lifan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0%, Chongqing Lifan 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 75% (Chongqing Lifan).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Chongqing Lifan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 75% of Chongqing Lifan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chongqing Lifan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 75% of Chongqing Lifan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chongqing Lifan in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 xG and Chongqing Lifan 0.95 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.75 / defence 1.59, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 25%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%, Chongqing Lifan 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.67 PPG, Chongqing Lifan 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.