Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Meizhou Kejia make the trip to Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 1W 0D 9L across their last 10 — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Meizhou Kejia are 0.90 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) — Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Meizhou Kejia in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 2 for Meizhou Kejia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jul 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–1 Meizhou Kejia — a Meizhou Kejia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 41% versus Meizhou Kejia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 56% | Meizhou Kejia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.786 / defence 1.188 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.016 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.294. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 42 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 45%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.92 | Draw 3.37 | Meizhou Kejia 2.23. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both teams scored in only 30% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and 20% of Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games, but Poisson BTTS probability is 56% — the model's attack ratings are higher than recent results suggest.
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 / Meizhou Kejia 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.786 / def 1.188 | Meizhou Kejia attack 1.016 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 26% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (0.79) and Meizhou Kejia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (1.02x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 42 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
26%
3.92
30%
3.37
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.56
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.56 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 3D 22L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Meizhou Kejia are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 17 home games (5W 1D 11L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 5W 4D 8L from their last 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 3D 22L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Meizhou Kejia's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.94 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won Meizhou Kejia 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2023: Meizhou Kejia 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 24% (Meizhou Kejia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 41% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 35%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 53% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 24% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 41% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 69% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Meizhou Kejia 3-2 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.56 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Meizhou Kejia attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 26% | Draw 30% | Meizhou Kejia 45%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shenzhen Ruby FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 56%, Meizhou Kejia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.