Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 6W 3D 1L at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Beijing Guoan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Beijing Guoan 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.19 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.892 / defence 1.073 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.009 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.293. Data: 42 Hangzhou Greentown games / 43 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 39%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Beijing Guoan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.19 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.892 / def 1.073 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.009 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 29% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.89x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.01x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
29%
3.45
32%
3.12
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.59
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.99
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 18W 12D 5L from 35 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 10L across 35 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.74 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 10W 5D 2L from 17 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 9W 3D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.66 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.06 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 29%, Beijing Guoan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 76% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 65% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 76% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Beijing Guoan 3-2 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.19 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 32% | Beijing Guoan 39%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 37%, Beijing Guoan 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.