Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Hebei Zhongji.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hebei Zhongji make the trip to University Town of Shenzhen Stadium to face Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (Championship Round - 3). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 13:15 UK time.
Current Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 3W 3D 2L from their last 8 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hebei Zhongji away from home: 2W 3D 3L from their last 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.30 for Hebei Zhongji. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 69% versus Hebei Zhongji 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 69% | Hebei Zhongji 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.061 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.703 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 14 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 14.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 34% | Hebei Zhongji 27%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.56 | Draw 2.95 | Hebei Zhongji 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 8 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 8 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% (last 8 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 38% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: University Town of Shenzhen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 December 2021 at 13:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 34% | Hebei Zhongji 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 / Hebei Zhongji 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.923 / def 1.061 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.703 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hebei Zhongji xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:15 UK time on Sunday 19 December 2021 at University Town of Shenzhen Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at University Town of Shenzhen Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (Championship Round - 3) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 39% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.70x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 14 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
39%
2.56
34%
2.95
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0.96 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 7W 4D 5L from 16 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 4L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.50 for Hebei Zhongji. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 3W 3D 2L from their last 8 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across their last 8 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.81 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 15 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shenzhen Ruby FC won Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-0 Hebei Zhongji on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 December 2022: Hebei Zhongji 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 62%, Hebei Zhongji 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 25% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 38%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 38% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 25% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 50% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shenzhen Ruby FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 at University Town of Shenzhen Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hebei Zhongji landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 39% | Draw 34% | Hebei Zhongji 27%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 69%, Hebei Zhongji 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.56 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.