Changchun Yatai 1-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 December 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Yuexiushan Stadium this season: 5W 2D 0L from 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yuexiushan Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Changchun Yatai are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 53% and Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Changchun Yatai 60% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.60 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.108 / defence 0.977 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.043 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Changchun Yatai games / 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 29% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.60 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.108 / def 0.977 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.043 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 42% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.11) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.52
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.92
1.31
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.31 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 15 games, going 9W 4D 2L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 67%.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 4D 2L in their last 15 games (2.07 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.43 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 5, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 29%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Changchun Yatai and 86% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 86% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC finished level at 1-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.60 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 29%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 60%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.