Shenyang Urban 0-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Shenyang Urban welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Tiexi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 July 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenyang Urban — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenyang Urban have posted 5W 0D 4L at Tiexi Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Shenyang Urban) versus 1.70 (Qingdao Youth Island). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shenyang Urban register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shenyang Urban, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shenyang Urban trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenyang Urban 56% and Qingdao Youth Island 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.77 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.923 / defence 1.266 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.909 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.347. Data: 18 Shenyang Urban games / 49 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 34%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shenyang Urban at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 67% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.77 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.923 / def 1.266 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.909 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Qingdao Youth Island xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Shenyang Urban 0 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 43% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shenyang Urban's attack at 0.92x the league average against Qingdao Youth Island's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Shenyang Urban's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.20
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
3.32
1.55
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
6%
17.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.55 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shenyang Urban come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 3D 9L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Youth Island sit at 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (5W 10D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenyang Urban on 1.17 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shenyang Urban's home form reads 4W 0D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Youth Island have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.28 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 10D 3L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Shenyang Urban's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.50 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Shenyang Urban 0-1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenyang Urban at 75%, Qingdao Youth Island at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Shenyang Urban and 62% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shenyang Urban's games and 75% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 62% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Qingdao Youth Island defy the odds to beat Shenyang Urban 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Shenyang Urban 0-1 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.77 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.55 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenyang Urban fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 43% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 34%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenyang Urban 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenyang Urban 1.17 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.