Shenyang Urban 4-4 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye meet at Tiexi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shenyang Urban's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Tiexi Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Henan Jianye have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shenyang Urban register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Henan Jianye in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shenyang Urban lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenyang Urban — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenyang Urban 54% versus Henan Jianye 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 64% | Henan Jianye 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.866 / defence 1.198 | Henan Jianye attack 0.901 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.367. Data: 22 Shenyang Urban games / 52 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenyang Urban are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shenyang Urban if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 70% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Shenyang Urban 1.49 / Henan Jianye 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.866 / def 1.198 | Henan Jianye attack 0.901 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Henan Jianye xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Shenyang Urban 4 - 4 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 38% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenyang Urban's attack at 0.87x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.90x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.95
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
2.96
1.47
Henan Jianye xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.47 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenyang Urban's recent record stands at 7W 3D 12L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 9L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Shenyang Urban against 1.32 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenyang Urban have managed 5W 0D 6L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shenyang Urban's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.36 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Shenyang Urban 4-4 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Shenyang Urban, 73% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Shenyang Urban and 73% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenyang Urban have failed to score in 27% of games; Henan Jianye in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Shenyang Urban's games and 73% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 73% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Shenyang Urban and Henan Jianye drew 4-4 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 1.47 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Shenyang Urban beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 38% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 37%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenyang Urban 64%, Henan Jianye 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenyang Urban 1.09 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.