SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Meizhou Kejia at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Pudong Football Stadium: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SHANGHAI SIPG have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
SHANGHAI SIPG hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 7–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% and Meizhou Kejia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Meizhou Kejia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.296 / defence 0.821 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.992 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.522. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 33 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 18%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Meizhou Kejia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 / Meizhou Kejia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.296 / def 0.821 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.992 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Meizhou Kejia xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 61% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (6 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 5W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.61
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.59
1.24
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
2%
59.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.24 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 44W 9D 7L from 60 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 29L across 60 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 22W 5D 3L from 30 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 4W 8D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.37 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SHANGHAI SIPG at 77%, Meizhou Kejia at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 63% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 60% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 63% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Meizhou Kejia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.35 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.24 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.30 / defence 0.82 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 61% | Draw 22% | Meizhou Kejia 18%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.