SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 15 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hangzhou Greentown's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.147 / defence 0.984 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.978 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.214. Data: 41 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Hangzhou Greentown 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.147 / def 0.984 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.978 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hangzhou Greentown xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 15 May 2026 at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (8 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.15) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.98x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.61
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.30
1.17
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
2%
42.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.17 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 45W 9D 6L from 60 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 22L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 23W 5D 2L from 30 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.92 scored and 1.85 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.47 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.90 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 53% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 70% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 53% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 70% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.17 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Hangzhou Greentown 20%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.