SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan meet at Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 1 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Pudong Football Stadium: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.40 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 2 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 5–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 60% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 67% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.19 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.129 / defence 0.940 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.299 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.441. Beijing Guoan have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 38 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Beijing Guoan 3.23. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 60% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.19 / Beijing Guoan 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.129 / def 0.940 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.299 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 47% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
Record (6 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 3W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.30x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
47%
2.11
22%
4.57
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.95
1.76
Beijing Guoan xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
3%
29.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.76 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 44W 9D 7L from 60 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 13L across 60 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 22W 5D 3L from 30 games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 12W 10D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.97 scored and 1.17 conceded. Beijing Guoan's attacking output running into SHANGHAI SIPG's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 44W 9D 7L in their last 60 games (2.35 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Beijing Guoan away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.37 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.53 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 63% for Beijing Guoan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 53% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 53% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-2 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.19 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.76 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.30 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 47% | Draw 22% | Beijing Guoan 31%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.78. Form was overturned, with Beijing Guoan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.