Shandong Luneng 4-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Tianjin Teda at Jinan Olympic Sports Center in Super League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 18 October 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Shandong Luneng: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Tianjin Teda, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2024, ended Shandong Luneng 1–1 Tianjin Teda — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shandong Luneng and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 51% versus Tianjin Teda 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 53% | Tianjin Teda 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shandong Luneng surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Tianjin Teda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Tianjin Teda surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Shandong Luneng recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.55 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.843 / defence 0.782 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.354. Shandong Luneng have a tight defence (rating 0.782), which is pulling Tianjin Teda's projected output down. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 57 games and Tianjin Teda's last 57.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.11 | Draw 3.95 | Tianjin Teda 3.66. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Shandong Luneng 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.55 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.843 / def 0.782 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 18 October 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.84x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 57 games and Tianjin Teda's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.95
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
17.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 27W 18D 12L from 57 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 14L across 57 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 1.74 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 18W 6D 4L from their last 28 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.44 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 63%.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 games (1.74 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 21D 14L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.14 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-1 Tianjin Teda.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 7, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 50%, Tianjin Teda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Shandong Luneng) and 54% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shandong Luneng's games and 68% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 75% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.55 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.84 / defence 0.78 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 53%, Tianjin Teda 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.74 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.