Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda at TEDA Football Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.30 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Tianjin Teda, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 4–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Tianjin Teda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 48% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.60 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / defence 0.841 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.860 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.371. Data: 56 Tianjin Teda games / 56 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.35. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.60 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / def 0.841 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.860 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda 3 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 52% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (7 meetings): Tianjin Teda 4W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.86x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.00
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.60
0.99
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.99 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 21D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.05 PPG from 56 outings (15W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 10W 15D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (5W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.07 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 21D 14L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.61 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 61% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 61% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 61% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-2 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.60 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 25% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 48%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.