Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Guzhenkou University Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Current Form

Qingdao Youth Island's overall Super League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Guzhenkou University Sports Center: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Yunnan Yukun (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Yunnan Yukun away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Qingdao Youth Island, 1.50 for Yunnan Yukun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Yunnan Yukun in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Youth Island lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Qingdao Youth Island goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Qingdao Youth Island 57% and Yunnan Yukun 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 45% | Yunnan Yukun 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.27 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.803 / defence 0.941 | Yunnan Yukun attack 1.043 / defence 1.657. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.404. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.657 — this is suppressing Qingdao Youth Island's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Qingdao Youth Island games / 58 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 57% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 22%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Youth Island (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Yunnan Yukun 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights