Qingdao Youth Island 3-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Youth Island face Sichuan Jiuniu.

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Analysis & Preview

Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium to take on Qingdao Youth Island in Super League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sichuan Jiuniu — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sichuan Jiuniu's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Youth Island 1.20 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Sichuan Jiuniu — a Qingdao Youth Island win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 60% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 56% | Sichuan Jiuniu 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.893 / defence 1.266 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.636 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.787 / away 1.332. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 25 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 25.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 25%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.01 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.95. Qingdao Youth Island hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Youth Island's last 10 home games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 60% (last 10 home games) | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% (last 10 away games).

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