Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 8W 2D 0L at Shanghai Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua's 2.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Tianjin Teda's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 0W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 47% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 47% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.80 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.457 / defence 0.728 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.060 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.333. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Shanghai Shenhua games / 55 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 74% | Draw 15% | Tianjin Teda 11%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Tianjin Teda 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.80 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Tianjin Teda lead the H2H ledger, but Shanghai Shenhua carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Tianjin Teda 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 74% | Draw 15% | Tianjin Teda 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 60% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.80 / Tianjin Teda 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.457 / def 0.728 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.060 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Tianjin Teda xG
60%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 74% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (1.46) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.06x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
74%
1.35
15%
6.77
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.83
1.03
Tianjin Teda xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.77
15%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
6%
16.40
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
1%
146.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.03 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 35W 11D 9L from 55 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 13L across 55 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 35W 11D 9L in their last 55 games (2.11 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 21D 13L in their last 55 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.22 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 48%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 52% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.80 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.03 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.46 / defence 0.73 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 74% | Draw 15% | Tianjin Teda 11%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.