Qingdao Youth Island 1-5 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Qingdao Youth Island welcome Shandong Luneng to Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Qingdao Youth Island) versus 1.40 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Shandong Luneng and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shandong Luneng trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 63% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Shandong Luneng 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 2.06 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.170 / defence 1.110 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.274 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.429. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Qingdao Youth Island games / 36 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Shandong Luneng 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | Shandong Luneng 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 77% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 2.06 / Shandong Luneng 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.170 / def 1.110 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.274 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Shandong Luneng xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 15 April 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 5 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 39% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 1W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating (1.17) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
39%
2.55
23%
4.36
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
4.08
2.02
Shandong Luneng xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.33
Clean Sheet
13%
7.55
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
5%
19.22
5%
20.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 2.02 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island's recent record stands at 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 8L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Youth Island heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Youth Island have managed 3W 7D 5L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.07 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Qingdao Youth Island or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 67%, Shandong Luneng 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 47% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 33%; Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 27% of games; Shandong Luneng in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 47% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 47% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-5 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 2.06 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 2.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 39% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Shandong Luneng 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.