Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center plays host to Qingdao Youth Island versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 5D 3L at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Qingdao Youth Island's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Meizhou Kejia's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 63% versus Meizhou Kejia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 60% | Meizhou Kejia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.84 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.039 / defence 1.211 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.983 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.445. Data: 38 Qingdao Youth Island games / 39 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 40% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 35%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Meizhou Kejia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Youth Island 80% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 40% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.84 / Meizhou Kejia 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.039 / def 1.211 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.983 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Youth Island 3 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 40% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 0W | Draws 2 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 1.04x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.98x) against Qingdao Youth Island's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.11
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
3.56
1.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.72 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 8D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Meizhou Kejia sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.90 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Meizhou Kejia have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Youth Island come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 0.97 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 9D 15L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Qingdao Youth Island's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 1.07 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Qingdao Youth Island go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
2
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 67%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 60% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 27% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Qingdao Youth Island's games and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent games and 60% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Meizhou Kejia 3-1 at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.84 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.72 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 40% | Draw 24% | Meizhou Kejia 35%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 60%, Meizhou Kejia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.