Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Henan Jianye at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.56 xG and Henan Jianye 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.929 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.315. Data: 0 Qingdao Youth Island games / 30 Henan Jianye games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 41% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 41% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.56 / Henan Jianye 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 0.929 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Henan Jianye xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Youth Island 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 41% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Henan Jianye away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Qingdao Youth Island's attack at 0.85x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.07
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.97
1.41
Henan Jianye xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.41 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Qingdao Youth Island
3
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Qingdao Youth Island and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.56 xG and Henan Jianye 1.41 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Henan Jianye attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 41% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 34%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.