Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Suzhou City Sports Centre to face Qingdao Huanghai in Super League (Relegation Round - 7). The match kicks off on Friday 31 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Qingdao Huanghai (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

Qingdao Huanghai's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Tianjin Teda's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 0.60 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai over their recent games (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Qingdao Huanghai edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Dec 2021, ended Qingdao Huanghai 2–1 Tianjin Teda — a Qingdao Huanghai win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Qingdao Huanghai half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 35% versus Tianjin Teda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Huanghai 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.12 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.788 / defence 1.464 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.688 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output up. Tianjin Teda's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.464 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 games and Tianjin Teda's last 14.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 30% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.34 | Draw 3.14 | Tianjin Teda 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Qingdao Huanghai 40% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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