Tianjin Teda 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Super League appearances (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 1W 4D 4L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Henan Jianye are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 63% versus Henan Jianye 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tianjin Teda 53% | Henan Jianye 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / defence 1.410 | Henan Jianye attack 0.698 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Tianjin Teda games / 14 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 35%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Henan Jianye 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 89% | Henan Jianye 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.23 / Henan Jianye 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / def 1.410 | Henan Jianye attack 0.698 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 33% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.97) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.19
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.27
Henan Jianye xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.27 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 3W 5D 11L from 19 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 5L across 19 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 2W 1D 6L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.95 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 games (0.74 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 0.78 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 6, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 89%, Henan Jianye 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Tianjin Teda) and 11% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 33%; Henan Jianye in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Tianjin Teda's games and 33% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 11% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye finished level at 0-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 1.41 against Henan Jianye attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 35%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 53%, Henan Jianye 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.