Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Shanghai Shenhua travel to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Nantong Zhiyun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shanghai Shenhua are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nantong Zhiyun in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 59% versus Shanghai Shenhua 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 30% | Shanghai Shenhua 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.81 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.567 / defence 1.154 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.927 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.175. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.567 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Nantong Zhiyun games / 61 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.13. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.81 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.567 / def 1.154 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.927 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 24% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating (0.57) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
24%
4.20
29%
3.39
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.07
1.26
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.26 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 27 games, going 3W 10D 14L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (14W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 2W 4D 7L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.15 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 14L in their last 27 games (0.70 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 14W 6D 7L in their last 27 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.77 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua 5-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 46%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 54% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 31%; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.81 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.26 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.57 / defence 1.15 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 30%, Shanghai Shenhua 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.