Nantong Zhiyun 0-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nantong Zhiyun at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Nantong Zhiyun welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nantong Zhiyun at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Youth Island have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nantong Zhiyun 0.50 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nantong Zhiyun, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Nantong Zhiyun winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).

Qingdao Youth Island in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 65% and Qingdao Youth Island 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 48% | Qingdao Youth Island 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.41 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.573 / defence 1.053 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.758 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.838 / away 1.327. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.573 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Nantong Zhiyun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Nantong Zhiyun games / 23 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 45% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.57. Nantong Zhiyun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Nantong Zhiyun 40% | Qingdao Youth Island 70%.

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