Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Zall at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hebei Zhongji welcome Wuhan Zall to Puwan Stadium in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 30 June 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hebei Zhongji's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Zall have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Wuhan Zall's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Wuhan Zall 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2022, ended Hebei Zhongji 1–2 Wuhan Zall — a Wuhan Zall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Wuhan Zall trading profile (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Wuhan Zall 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 32% | Wuhan Zall 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.87 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.732 / defence 1.460 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.882 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.160. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Zall's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 20 games and Wuhan Zall's last 20.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Zall 50%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 5.04 | Draw 3.28 | Wuhan Zall 2.01. Wuhan Zall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Zall are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 June 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Zall 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.87 / Wuhan Zall 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.732 / def 1.460 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.882 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Wuhan Zall xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Thursday 30 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Hebei Zhongji 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 20% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.73x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 20 games and Wuhan Zall's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
20%
5.04
30%
3.28
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.37
1.49
Wuhan Zall xG
5.04
20%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
4%
22.44
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.49 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 11D 8L across 22 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hebei Zhongji on 1.14 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 4W 4D 3L from their last 11 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across their last 11 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hebei Zhongji come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 64%.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 8L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.45 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 June 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
2
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 June 2022: Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Wuhan Zall.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 46%, Wuhan Zall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Hebei Zhongji and 36% for Wuhan Zall.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 36% of games; Wuhan Zall in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 46% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 36% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 64% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hebei Zhongji defy the odds to beat Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.87 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.49 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.73 / defence 1.46 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 20% | Draw 30% | Wuhan Zall 50%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hebei Zhongji win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 32%, Wuhan Zall 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 1.14 PPG, Wuhan Zall 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hebei Zhongji win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.