Shandong Luneng 2-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Shandong Luneng. A 0.80 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.40 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2022, ended 1–4 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 54% versus Henan Jianye 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shandong Luneng 50% | Henan Jianye 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.367 / defence 0.631 | Henan Jianye attack 1.103 / defence 0.594. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.119. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.594 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shandong Luneng's defence rating of 0.631 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Shandong Luneng games / 20 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 42% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 24%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Henan Jianye 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 60% | Henan Jianye 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 42% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.12 / Henan Jianye 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.367 / def 0.631 | Henan Jianye attack 1.103 / def 0.594 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 28 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 42% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 0W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.10x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.94
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Henan Jianye xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.78 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 22 games, going 15W 6D 1L for 2.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 9W 2D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.86 scored and 0.91 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Henan Jianye's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Henan Jianye in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 6D 1L in their last 22 games (2.32 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.64 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 54%, Henan Jianye 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shandong Luneng) and 18% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 36%; Henan Jianye in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 27% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 18% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Henan Jianye 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.37 / defence 0.63 against Henan Jianye attack 1.10 / defence 0.59, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 42% | Draw 34% | Henan Jianye 24%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 50%, Henan Jianye 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.