Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 3W 1D 0L at Tianhe Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 2–0 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 60% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.73 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.297 / defence 1.067 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.787 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.161. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Guangzhou Evergrande FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 10 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 52% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 18%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.56. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 75% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 52% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.73 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.297 / def 1.067 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.787 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 52% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.29
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.71
0.98
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
31.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.98 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 5W 3D 2L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3-3 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 75%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 75% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's games and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 75% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou Evergrande FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5-2 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.73 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.98 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.79 / defence 1.32, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 52% | Draw 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 18%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 60%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.