Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-3 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 38%, yet in-form Meizhou Kejia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Guangzhou Evergrande FC welcome Meizhou Kejia to Huadu Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Huadu Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Meizhou Kejia stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Meizhou Kejia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 30% rate and Meizhou Kejia's 29% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (19 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 32% versus Meizhou Kejia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42% | Meizhou Kejia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.92 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.820 / defence 0.832 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.669 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.289. Data: 33 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 19 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% | Draw 35% | Meizhou Kejia 27%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Meizhou Kejia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Meizhou Kejia's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Meizhou Kejia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% | Meizhou Kejia 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% | Draw 35% | Meizhou Kejia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.92 / Meizhou Kejia 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.820 / def 0.832 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.669 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1 - 3 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 38% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
38%
2.62
35%
2.86
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
1.63
0.72
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.2%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.72 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 3W 3D 13L from 19 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 5L across 19 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Meizhou Kejia by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou Evergrande FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.63 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.53 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 3D 13L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Meizhou Kejia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.14 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%, Meizhou Kejia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 14% for Meizhou Kejia.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 43%; Guangzhou Evergrande FC have failed to score in 43% of games; Meizhou Kejia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 29% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 14% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Meizhou Kejia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-3 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.92 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.72 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.67 / defence 0.87, drawn from 33/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 38% | Draw 35% | Meizhou Kejia 27%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%, Meizhou Kejia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (19 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (19 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.