Dalian Zhixing 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing host Sichuan Jiuniu at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Zhixing — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Zhixing at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Dalian Zhixing have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dalian Zhixing's 20% rate and Sichuan Jiuniu's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Zhixing in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 32% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.75 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.738 / defence 0.865 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.662 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.292. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Dalian Zhixing's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Dalian Zhixing games / 53 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 60% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Sichuan Jiuniu 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Zhixing are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 60% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.75 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.738 / def 0.865 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.662 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 60% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.90
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.49
0.74
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
40.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 0.74 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 8W 5D 9L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 14L across 22 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dalian Zhixing by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sichuan Jiuniu heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 1W 1D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.23 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.90 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Dalian Zhixing or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Zhixing have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
2
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dalian Zhixing 20% BTTS, Sichuan Jiuniu 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dalian Zhixing) and 70% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing have failed to score in 30% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 30% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 70% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.75 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 60% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 27%, Sichuan Jiuniu 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.