Chengdu Better City 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chengdu Better City at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Youth Island — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Chengdu Better City) versus 1.50 (Qingdao Youth Island). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Qingdao Youth Island 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 63% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.87 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.933 / defence 0.710 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.909 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.463. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Chengdu Better City games / 41 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.87 / Qingdao Youth Island 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.933 / def 0.710 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.909 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Qingdao Youth Island xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 59% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (0.93) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.37
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.81
0.94
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
35.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.94 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 18W 5D 7L from 30 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Qingdao Youth Island, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Youth Island heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 11W 2D 2L from 15 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record stands at 5W 1D 9L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 games (1.97 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.33 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
4
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 47%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Chengdu Better City and 73% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 13, as Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.87 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.93 / defence 0.71 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.