Changchun Yatai 2-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Wuhan Three Towns at Changchun Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 10 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Changchun Yatai at 1.00 PPG versus Wuhan Three Towns's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 3 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Changchun Yatai 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 60% and Wuhan Three Towns 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Wuhan Three Towns 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.51 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.939 / defence 0.898 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.083 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.820 / away 1.329. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 52 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 52.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 32%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.39 | Draw 3.87 | Wuhan Three Towns 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 22 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.51 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.939 / def 0.898 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.083 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.820 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 22) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 42% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.94x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 52 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.87
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.80
1.29
Wuhan Three Towns xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.29 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 15W 15D 22L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 17L across 52 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.15 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 8D 8L from their last 25 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across their last 25 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 67%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 21W 14D 17L in their last 52 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.40 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Changchun Yatai at 64%, Wuhan Three Towns at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Changchun Yatai and 68% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Changchun Yatai's games and 84% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 68% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 88% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.51 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.29 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 42% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 32%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Wuhan Three Towns 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.15 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.