Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shijiazhuang Y. J. face Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Shandong Luneng at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 August 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Cangzhou Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Shandong Luneng have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58% versus Shandong Luneng 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shandong Luneng 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.687 / defence 1.325 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.826 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.312. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 52 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 44%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Shandong Luneng 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 / Shandong Luneng 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.687 / def 1.325 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.826 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 29% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Record (7 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 5W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.69) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
29%
3.51
27%
3.66
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.54
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
7%
14.75
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.44 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 13D 27L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 25W 17D 10L from 52 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Venue Form
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 8W 12D 6L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.75 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 13D 27L in their last 52 games (0.94 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 25W 17D 10L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.15 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 38% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 38%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 35% of games; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 38% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shandong Luneng 3-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.69 / defence 1.32 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% | Draw 27% | Shandong Luneng 44%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Shandong Luneng 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.