Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Development Area Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 June 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Shanghai Shenhua's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Changchun Yatai's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 4 for Shanghai Shenhua and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Shanghai Shenhua 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.712 / defence 0.908 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.095 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.332. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Changchun Yatai games / 45 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 45%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.22. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.95 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.712 / def 0.908 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.095 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 27% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (9 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 3 | Shanghai Shenhua 4W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.58
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.28
1.32
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.32 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 39W 12D 9L across 60 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 19W 5D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.78 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 63%, Shanghai Shenhua 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 47% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Changchun Yatai's games and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.95 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.32 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.71 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.09 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 45%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.