Beijing Guoan 6-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Beijing Guoan take on Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 23 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Beijing Guoan at Workers' Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Beijing Guoan) versus 1.80 (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beijing Guoan trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 57% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.871 / defence 0.788 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.020 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.288. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Beijing Guoan games / 42 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 31% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 34% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Beijing Guoan 70% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 31% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 46% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.04 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.871 / def 0.788 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.020 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
46%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan 6 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 31% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
38%
2.61
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.07
1.04
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.04 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 56 games, going 26W 13D 17L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (17W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 14W 9D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (9W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 games (1.62 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.82 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 61%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Beijing Guoan and 71% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Beijing Guoan's games and 68% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 71% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 6-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.04 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.04 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.87 / defence 0.79 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 31% | Draw 38% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.