Beijing Guoan 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Workers' Stadium.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hangzhou Greentown's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1W, Hangzhou Greentown 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 63% and Hangzhou Greentown 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 57% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.65 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / defence 0.854 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.153 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.530. Data: 34 Beijing Guoan games / 34 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 33%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Hangzhou Greentown lead the H2H ledger, but Beijing Guoan carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.65 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / def 0.854 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.153 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 39% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.15x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.67
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.15
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 30W 17D 13L from 60 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 21L across 60 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.55 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.03 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Beijing Guoan, 67% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beijing Guoan and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Beijing Guoan's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.65 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 57%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.