York United 0-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Pacific FC travel to York Lions Stadium to take on York United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 July 2023, 00:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, York United have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, York United have posted 4W 2D 4L at York Lions Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 1.70 PPG, Pacific FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Pacific FC trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 44% versus Pacific FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 49% | Pacific FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.14 xG and Pacific FC 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.855 / defence 1.280 | Pacific FC attack 1.383 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.281. Pacific FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 York United games / 42 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 18% | Draw 20% | Pacific FC 62%. Fair-value odds: York United 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Pacific FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Pacific FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 18% | Draw 20% | Pacific FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG York United 1.14 / Pacific FC 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.855 / def 1.280 | Pacific FC attack 1.383 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
York United xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Pacific FC xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Pacific FC kick off?
York United vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Pacific FC?
York United 0 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is York United vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Pacific FC part of?
York United vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 18% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both York United and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Pacific FC in?
York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus York United's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
18%
5.68
20%
5.03
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
York United xG
Total xG
3.40
2.27
Pacific FC xG
5.68
18%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
10%
9.65
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
2%
54.77
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are York United and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for York United and 2.27 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York United's recent record stands at 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 12L across 43 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York United on 1.26 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York United have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.25 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have York United or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
3
Draws
2
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Pacific FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Pacific FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 45%, Pacific FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (York United) and 40% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 40% of games; Pacific FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of York United's recent matches and 45% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of York United's recent games and 40% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Pacific FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United and Pacific FC finished level at 0-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.14 xG and Pacific FC 2.27 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.85 / defence 1.28 against Pacific FC attack 1.38 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 18% | Draw 20% | Pacific FC 62%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 49%, Pacific FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.26 PPG, Pacific FC 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.