Pacific FC 0-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 04:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Forge (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Forge away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Pacific FC's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus Forge 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Forge 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pacific FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Forge have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.15 xG and Forge 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.019 / defence 0.888 | Forge attack 0.997 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.217. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 43 games and Forge's last 44.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.79 | Draw 3.14 | Forge 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Forge's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Forge 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 04:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Pacific FC 1.15 / Forge 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.019 / def 0.888 | Forge attack 0.997 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Forge xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 04:00 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 2 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 36% chance of winning, Forge a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.02) and Forge's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.00x) against Pacific FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 43 games and Forge's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.14
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.08
Forge xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.08 for Forge, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 13D 12L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.69 PPG from 45 outings (22W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.69 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 10W 8D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 23 away games (11W 5D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
Pacific FC (Home) vs Forge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Forge have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.65 PPG; Forge away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pacific FC and Forge, the earliest from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won Forge 4-0 Pacific FC on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 56%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 35% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Forge in 44%; Forge in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Forge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Forge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and Forge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 35% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 78% of Forge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 0-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.15 xG and Forge 1.08 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Forge attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Forge 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.62 PPG, Forge 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.