York United 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 1.00 PPG clear of York United in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 51% versus Cavalry FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 55% | Cavalry FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.824 / defence 1.385 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.393. Data: 53 York United games / 53 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62%. Fair-value odds: York United 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Cavalry FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG York United 0.98 / Cavalry FC 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.824 / def 1.385 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
York United xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Cavalry FC xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Cavalry FC kick off?
York United vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
York United 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is York United vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Cavalry FC part of?
York United vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 16% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both York United and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in?
York United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates York United's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.08x) against York United's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
16%
6.23
22%
4.51
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
York United xG
Total xG
3.07
2.08
Cavalry FC xG
6.23
16%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
2%
50.15
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are York United and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for York United and 2.08 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Cavalry FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 12D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 53 outings (27W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of York United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.12 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.35 PPG.
Have York United or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
York United
1
Draws
7
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York United and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 46%, Cavalry FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (York United) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 42% of games; Cavalry FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of York United's recent matches and 58% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of York United's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 0-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 2.08 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. York United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cavalry FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.82 / defence 1.39 against Cavalry FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 16% | Draw 22% | Cavalry FC 62%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 55%, Cavalry FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.