Valour 0-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valour face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Thursday 21 September 2023 at 02:00 UK time.
Form
Valour (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vancouver FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vancouver FC away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Valour against 0.70 for Vancouver FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Valour, 0 for Vancouver FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Valour 0–0 Vancouver FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Vancouver FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 38% | Vancouver FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.67 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.969 / defence 1.154 | Vancouver FC attack 0.601 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.393. Vancouver FC's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valour's projected output up. Vancouver FC's attack rating of 0.601 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Valour's last 52 games and Vancouver FC's last 24.
Result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.92 | Draw 3.59 | Vancouver FC 5.00. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valour 60% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 21 September 2023 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Valour 1.67 / Vancouver FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.969 / def 1.154 | Vancouver FC attack 0.601 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Valour (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valour vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Valour vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Valour vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Thursday 21 September 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Valour 0 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Valour vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Vancouver FC part of?
Valour vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 52% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valour and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valour vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.97x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.60x) against Valour's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Valour's last 52 games and Vancouver FC's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.59
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Valour xG
Total xG
2.64
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valour vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Valour and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Valour and 0.97 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valour come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 8D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Valour against 0.83 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valour's home form reads 3W 4D 5L across their last 12 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.42 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 2D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
Valour (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valour
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Valour vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Valour and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Vancouver FC away?
Valour's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.08 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Valour and Vancouver FC, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Valour have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won Vancouver FC 4-1 Valour on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valour
2
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Valour vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valour have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2025: Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 58%, Vancouver FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Valour) and 50% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valour vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valour and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valour and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Valour's recent matches and 67% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Valour 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.67 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Vancouver FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 52% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 20%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 38%, Vancouver FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 0.96 PPG, Vancouver FC 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.