York United 0-0 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates York United at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 June 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for York United against 1.20 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 59% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 60% | Atlético Ottawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.54 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.039 / defence 0.938 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.224 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.197. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 York United games / 39 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 33%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Atlético Ottawa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 40% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG York United 1.54 / Atlético Ottawa 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.039 / def 0.938 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.224 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: York United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Atlético Ottawa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 0 - 0 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 40% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (4 meetings): York United 2W | Draws 1 | Atlético Ottawa 1W.
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in?
York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (1.04) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.22x) against York United's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
40%
2.47
26%
3.80
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
York United xG
Total xG
2.91
1.37
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for York United and 1.37 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 12D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.40 PPG from 58 outings (21W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for York United against 1.40 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 12W 5D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.41 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 23W 12D 23L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
York United's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.46 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.39 PPG.
Have York United or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
York United
5
Draws
2
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 2-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (York United) and 46% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 32%; York United have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of York United's recent games and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at York United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 0-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.54 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.37 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. York United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 40% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 33%, with York United to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.40 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.