Valour 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valour face Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Princess Auto Stadium to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 July 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Princess Auto Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Cavalry FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Valour's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Cavalry FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cavalry FC have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 61% versus Cavalry FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 56% | Cavalry FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.85 xG and Cavalry FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.792 / defence 1.264 | Cavalry FC attack 0.972 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.235. Valour's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Valour games / 41 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 19% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Valour 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 2.00. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 50% | Cavalry FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 19% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Valour 0.85 / Cavalry FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.792 / def 1.264 | Cavalry FC attack 0.972 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Cavalry FC xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 19% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Record (7 meetings): Valour 1W | Draws 2 | Cavalry FC 4W.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.79) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.97x) against Valour's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
19%
5.40
31%
3.20
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valour xG
Total xG
2.37
1.52
Cavalry FC xG
5.40
19%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
4%
24.63
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valour and 1.52 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 9W 9D 23L from 41 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 6L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valour heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 6W 3D 10L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 10W 6D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.46 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 9W 9D 23L in their last 41 games (0.88 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 20W 15D 6L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.11 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Valour or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 53%, Cavalry FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valour) and 37% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 37%; Valour have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Valour's recent matches and 53% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valour's recent games and 37% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Valour 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 1-2 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.85 xG and Cavalry FC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.79 / defence 1.26 against Cavalry FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 19% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 50%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 56%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.