HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as HFX Wanderers FC take on Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Wanderers Grounds to face HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 1 July 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
HFX Wanderers FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for HFX Wanderers FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
HFX Wanderers FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Wanderers Grounds this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 8D 0L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cavalry FC are 0.70 PPG clear of HFX Wanderers FC in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — HFX Wanderers FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cavalry FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — HFX Wanderers FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
HFX Wanderers FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — HFX Wanderers FC 62% and Cavalry FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HFX Wanderers FC 54% | Cavalry FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HFX Wanderers FC 1.03 xG and Cavalry FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.870 / defence 1.143 | Cavalry FC attack 0.846 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.169. Data: 38 HFX Wanderers FC games / 39 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 34%. Fair-value odds: HFX Wanderers FC 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Cavalry FC 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: HFX Wanderers FC 80% | Cavalry FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wanderers Grounds • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jul 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG HFX Wanderers FC 1.03 / Cavalry FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.870 / def 1.143 | Cavalry FC attack 0.846 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Cavalry FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 1 July 2024 at Wanderers Grounds.
What was the final score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 0 Cavalry FC.
Where is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Wanderers Grounds.
What competition is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives HFX Wanderers FC a 29% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (1 meetings): HFX Wanderers FC 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 0W.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in?
HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 2W-8D-0L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates HFX Wanderers FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.85x) against HFX Wanderers FC's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.48
37%
2.67
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
HFX Wanderers FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.13
Cavalry FC xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.13 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, HFX Wanderers FC have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 12W 13D 14L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for HFX Wanderers FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 19W 12D 8L from 39 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against HFX Wanderers FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, HFX Wanderers FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — HFX Wanderers FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
HFX Wanderers FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: HFX Wanderers FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Cavalry FC in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HFX Wanderers FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
HFX Wanderers FC have gone 12W 13D 14L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 19W 12D 8L in their last 39 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HFX Wanderers FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
HFX Wanderers FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HFX Wanderers FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, HFX Wanderers FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
HFX Wanderers FC
4
Draws
5
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, HFX Wanderers FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Who has won more matches between HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
HFX Wanderers FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for HFX Wanderers FC, 67% for Cavalry FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (HFX Wanderers FC) and 44% (Cavalry FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HFX Wanderers FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when HFX Wanderers FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of HFX Wanderers FC's games and 67% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 44% of Cavalry FC's.
Do HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
HFX Wanderers FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as HFX Wanderers FC defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
HFX Wanderers FC beat Cavalry FC 1-0 at Wanderers Grounds, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HFX Wanderers FC 1.03 xG and Cavalry FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Cavalry FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HFX Wanderers FC 29% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual HFX Wanderers FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HFX Wanderers FC 54%, Cavalry FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HFX Wanderers FC's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with HFX Wanderers FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. HFX Wanderers FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.