Forge 2-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 June 2025, 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
York United away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Forge) versus 1.10 (York United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Forge, 0 for York United and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 46% versus York United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 54% | York United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.63 xG and York United 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.055 / defence 0.887 | York United attack 1.056 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.331. Data: 39 Forge games / 40 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 46% | Draw 26% | York United 28%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | York United 3.57. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Forge 20% | York United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 46% | Draw 26% | York United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Forge 1.63 / York United 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.055 / def 0.887 | York United attack 1.056 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Forge (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.25
York United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 2 - 2 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 46% chance of winning, York United a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Record (4 meetings): Forge 2W | Draws 2 | York United 0W.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.05) and York United's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.85
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Forge xG
Total xG
2.88
1.25
York United xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Forge and 1.25 for York United, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Forge have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 12D 18L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 23W 12D 24L from 59 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.68 PPG, York United on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L).
On the road, York United have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 29W 12D 18L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while York United have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.97 PPG; York United away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, York United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Forge
4
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 6, York United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Forge 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 52%, York United 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Forge and 66% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Forge's games and 69% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Forge's matches and 66% of York United's.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, York United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge and York United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 13, as Forge and York United drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.63 xG and York United 1.25 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against York United attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 46% | Draw 26% | York United 28%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 54%, York United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.68 PPG, York United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.