Forge 3-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge in Canadian Premier League (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024 at 22:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, York United stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Forge's games and 80% of York United's (from Forge's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 47% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 46% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.70 xG and York United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 0.972 / defence 1.125 | York United attack 1.099 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.018. Data: built from Forge's last 34 games and York United's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.25 | Draw 3.28 | York United 3.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Forge's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Forge 60% (last 10 home games) | York United 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Forge 34 games, York United 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 4 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 1 June 2024 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Forge 1.70 / York United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 0.972 / def 1.125 | York United attack 1.099 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Forge (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.26
York United xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Forge vs York United FAQs
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 3 - 0 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 4) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 44% chance of winning, York United a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Forge and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (0.97) and York United's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Forge's last 34 games and York United's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.28
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Forge xG
Total xG
2.96
1.26
York United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
5%
21.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Forge vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Forge and 1.26 for York United, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Forge have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 28W 14D 15L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 20W 12D 25L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.68 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 8D 7L).
On the road, York United have gone 11W 6D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Forge (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Forge
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Forge vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.68 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, York United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Oct 2026, when Forge won Forge 5-0 York United.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Forge
4
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Forge vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Forge have won 6, York United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Forge 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 57%, York United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 57% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Forge vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Forge and York United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Forge's games and 54% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Forge and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 57% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 3-0 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 3-0 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.70 xG and York United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against York United attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 44% | Draw 31% | York United 25%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 46%, York United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.