Valour 2-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 50%, yet in-form Vancouver FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valour vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to Princess Auto Stadium to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 3 June 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Princess Auto Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vancouver FC are 0.60 PPG clear of Valour in recent Canadian Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valour lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Vancouver FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valour — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 46% versus Vancouver FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 36% | Vancouver FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.75 xG and Vancouver FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.959 / defence 1.040 | Vancouver FC attack 0.996 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.027. Data: 35 Valour games / 35 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 50% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Vancouver FC 5.00. Valour hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vancouver FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valour 40% | Vancouver FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Princess Auto Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jun 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 50% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Valour 1.75 / Vancouver FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.959 / def 1.040 | Vancouver FC attack 0.996 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Valour (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Valour vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 3 June 2024 at Princess Auto Stadium.
What was the final score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Valour 2 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Valour vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Princess Auto Stadium.
What competition is Valour vs Vancouver FC part of?
Valour vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 50% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valour and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Vancouver FC?
Record (3 meetings): Valour 0W | Draws 1 | Vancouver FC 2W.
What form are Valour and Vancouver FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.96x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against Valour's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.31
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Valour xG
Total xG
2.82
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
3%
29.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Valour and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Valour and 1.06 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valour come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 8D 14L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Valour against 1.04 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valour's home form reads 3W 4D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (3W 2D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Vancouver FC away?
Valour's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 0.93 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 6 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valour have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 4-1 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valour
2
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2025, when Vancouver FC 2-5 Valour.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 50%, Vancouver FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Valour) and 50% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Valour have failed to score in 36% of games; Vancouver FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valour cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Vancouver FC 2-0 at Princess Auto Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.75 xG and Vancouver FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vancouver FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 50% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 20%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 36%, Vancouver FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 0.93 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valour win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.