Cavalry FC 4-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at ATCO Field. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Cavalry FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Pacific FC, with 1 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cavalry FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Pacific FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 59% | Pacific FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.85 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / defence 0.996 | Pacific FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Pacific FC 4.17. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 50% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.85 / Pacific FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.007 / def 0.996 | Pacific FC attack 0.991 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 4 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 50% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 7W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.83
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.25
Pacific FC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.25 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 29W 14D 11L from 54 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 31L across 54 games — 0.69 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 18W 5D 2L from 25 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 2W 8D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.11 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 29W 14D 11L in their last 54 games (1.87 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 7W 16D 31L in their last 54 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.36 PPG; Pacific FC away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 8, Pacific FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Cavalry FC 4-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 52%, Pacific FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cavalry FC and 64% for Pacific FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pacific FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 52% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cavalry FC's matches and 64% of Pacific FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 4-2 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.85 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Pacific FC 24%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 59%, Pacific FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.