Cavalry FC 3-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Forge at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 53% versus Forge 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 49% | Forge 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.08 xG and Forge 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.895 | Forge attack 1.017 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.290. Data: 45 Cavalry FC games / 46 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Forge 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Forge 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Cavalry FC 1.08 / Forge 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.073 / def 0.895 | Forge attack 1.017 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Forge (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Forge xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 02:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 3 - 0 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 33% chance of winning, Forge a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Forge (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.07) and Forge's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.49
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Forge xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.17 for Forge, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 21W 12D 14L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 13L across 47 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.60 PPG, Forge on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 14W 4D 5L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 12W 5D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.57 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Forge have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Forge away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 52%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cavalry FC) and 35% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Forge in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 35% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Forge in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 3-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.08 xG and Forge 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Forge landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 49%, Forge 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.60 PPG, Forge 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.