Atlético Ottawa 3-3 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 01:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
York United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Atlético Ottawa's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
York United half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 48% versus York United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | York United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG and York United 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.046 / defence 0.799 | York United attack 1.081 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.266. Atlético Ottawa have a tight defence (rating 0.799), which is pulling York United's projected output down. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 45 games and York United's last 46.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.44 | Draw 3.62 | York United 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 30% (last 10 home games) | York United 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.29 / York United 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.046 / def 0.799 | York United attack 1.081 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.09
York United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 3 - 3 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 41% chance of winning, York United a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.05x the league average against York United's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.08x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 45 games and York United's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.62
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
York United xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.09 for York United, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 14D 13L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (16W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.26 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.09 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while York United have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.39 PPG; York United away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, York United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa on 1 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
3
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 2, York United have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: York United 2-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, York United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Atlético Ottawa) and 48% (York United).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 35% of games; York United in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 48% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 48% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 48% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and York United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa and York United finished level at 3-3 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG and York United 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. York United outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against York United attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 41% | Draw 28% | York United 31%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, York United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.54 PPG, York United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.